Anheuser-Busch InBev: Love The Beer Giant (Seeking Alpha Article)

Summary

  • There’s a possibility of higher synergies from AB InBev’s acquisition of the world’s second larger brewer SABMiller.
  • AB InBev has a massive presence across the world, that continues to grow with 59% of revenue coming from emerging markets.
  • AB InBev is diversified in terms of price and taste, with its High End unit leading the way with both revenue and EBITDA growth.
  • AB InBev is financially much stronger than its peers, with operating margin double of its peers and EBITDA margin highest of major consumer goods companies.
  • Massive debt load is not a concern.

To keep reading more, click here for the SA article. Or copy/paste: https://seekingalpha.com/article/4199719-anheuser-busch-inbev-love-beer-giant

How Do You Define Success?

It’s been a while since I posted. I am back! Did you miss me?

Due to a current internship at a financial institution, I won’t post any security related ideas. However, I wanted to talk to you all about something.

How. Do. You. Define. Success?

It is a question I have asked over 50 people in the past five weeks. The respondents’ age range from 17 to about 50, and is in or pursing profession in financial services to journalism sector. The answers are very different, and there seems to be a pattern.

  • Low range spectrum aged (17-24) people’s responses are generally “money money money.”
  • Midrange spectrum aged (25-33) people’s responses are generally “being fulfilled.”
  • Upper range spectrum aged (34-50) people’s responses are generally “being able to care of my family.”

See a pattern? I bet you do. Wait for a second, I said their “responses are generally.”

Some people in all three spectrums of age said “being happy.” Common answers to be happy include family, friends, and career (power and/or money).

‘Success’ Synonyms                                                                                                                                               Source: Thesaurus

How do you define success? I believe there are two different categories of success: Professional success and personal success.

Professional Success

I have achieved a professional success when I enjoy my work and people are able to criticize without being afraid of retaliation.

Past criticisms and experiences from trading to internships are the main reasons my professional success is higher than before. Turning their critical feedback into a compliment has allowed me to feel good and improve.

But then, there’s another question. How do you achieve that professional success? That’s where your goals come in. Ask yourself, “Will achieving my goals help me realize my definition of professional success?”

Personal Success

I have achieved a personal success when my quality of relationships is high.

Past criticisms and life experiences from in-depth conversations to heartbreaks are the main reasons my personal success is higher than before.

Once again, there’s another question. How do you achieve that personal success? That’s where your goals come in. Ask yourself, “Will achieving my goals help me realize my definition of personal success?”

PaP Success

Does professional and personal success intersect? Yes. If one is missing, you might not feel “fulfilled.”

  • Which one is more important?
  • Does your professional success depend on your personal life?
  • Does your personal success depend on your professional life?

The answers are different for everyone. It is up to you to determine for yourself. I cannot define them for you because it comes from own experiences. It is possible for my answers to the questions to change anytime.

                                   Goals                                                                                      Success

 

 

 

 

 

No one is perfect, but everyone is perfect in their own way.

Know Yourself!

Love Yourself!

Seek experiences and criticisms!

Altria: 5 Reasons To Buy (Seeking Alpha Article)

Forgive me, Father, for I have sinned. I invested in a sin company, specifically the Big Tobacco.

Over the path month, I have been researching consumer goods companies. Initially, I believed I was going to invest in a recession-proof company like Procter & Gamble (PG) or Clorox (CLX). Not even close. I’m going to be a bad boy, set aside the social responsibility consequences, and invest in a sin stock. As Gordon Gekko said in the famous “Wall Street” movie, “greed is good.”

To keep reading more, click here for the SA article. Or copy/paste: https://seekingalpha.com/article/4139099-altria-5-reasons-buy

Currency (Forex & Cryptocurrencies) Portfolio: Annual Report

In 2017, I focused less on a personal forex portfolio, and more on other portfolios as capital deposits in the latter reached the same amount as the personal FX portfolio. In this post, I will be discussing three currency portfolios; active trading strategies, carry trade strategy, and cryptocurrencies.

Active Trading Forex Portfolio

Since inception (09/29/2015, I actually started trading in 2011), personal forex portfolio is up 33%. For 2017, it returned 8.39%. For 2016 and 2015, the portfolio returned 32.82% and 117.48%, respectively. So why the big differences in percentages since inception and yearly returns? More money was deposited into the account over time. As a result, I have risked much lesser capital per trade. The portfolio size is 10 times bigger than it was in 2015, or 100 times bigger than it was in 2011. Thus, the returns in % terms are much smaller, but in nominal amounts, much bigger.

In 2017, the maximum drawdown was almost 7%. When the drawdown increased 2% in a week in the middle of the year, I knew I had to change certain positions. 2% move in a week was a big deal considering I was focused less on the personal FX portfolio. Once I closed certain positions and opened new positions, the drawdown went back to its average of 3.5% within two weeks and stayed below that level since then. Risk management is very important!

I don’t have other metrics, such as monthly returns, standard deviation, and Sharpe ratio, as I did for 2016 because the ex-broker who provided me with the useful statistics was banned from the U.S., for defrauding customers and engaging in false/misleading solicitations.

Carry Trade Forex Portfolio

During early 2017, I wanted to create another forex account solely focused on one strategy. I didn’t want the carry trade positions mixed with active positions. So I opened an account with a different broker, Oanda. I initially deposited about 4% of my capital, amount I can afford to lose.

I made some mistakes in the beginning. The first trade was shorting EUR/TRY, whose interest differential is the highest, A.K.A higher yield. I started to lose a lot of money as the only carry trade in the account kept going in the opposite direction of my favor (EUR/TRY kept rising), talks of ECB tapering its balance sheet appreciated the euro and the situation in Turkey depreciated the lira.

Within several months, my unrealized losses were about 30% of the portfolio. I couldn’t do anything about it to manage the risk as my hands were tied due to work. I had to set up the carry trade portfolio in a way I barely have to worry about the fluctuations in unrealized P/L. When work ended for the summer, the portfolio drawdown was its highest, almost 50%.

I learned that the key to successful carry trade is to leave plenty of margin in the account for the pairs to fluctuate without wiping out your account. So I deposited 1% more capital into the account to prevent margin call. Immediately afterward, I changed my positions. I shorted some of the highest yielding currency pairs with negative correlation to EUR/TRY. Within a month, the drawdown went from 50% to 30%. Currently, it is just above 20%. Risk management is very important!

For its first year, the portfolio is up 14%. The 14% comes from the interest returns on the positions as it rolled over to the next day. However, when the unrealized losses are taken into account for 2017, the portfolio is down 23%. Carry trade is a long-term trend following strategy that requires patience and risk management.

This is an instance of humans thinking they can do something well, but things go sideways when they put their actual money, relationships, etc. at risk. I initially believed I could make some money easily with the carry trade. When the time came to have a real money at risk, I made mistakes and learned a lot! This is why I won’t be overconfident in things unless I actually have a good experience in it.  Not just for professional life, but also for personal life.

Cryptocurrencies Portfolio

Ahhh. Cryptocurrencies. The hot talk of the moment. Like everybody else, I’m up big time. I started buying cryptocurrencies in July. As of this writing, the portfolio is up 143%. I know I know, 143% is nothing compared to the actual returns of the cryptocurrencies. I currently hold Bitcoin (BTC/USD), bitcoin cash (BHC/USD), Ethereum (ETH/USD), and Litecoin (LTC/USD). If all the cryptocurrencies were to drop 99%, I will only lose 5% of my capital and continue to live as usual. To clarify, I’m not actively trading them.

Shortly after the tweet, I bought bitcoin, litecoin, and more ethereum. Until then, I continued buying all three.

I bought more ethereum before the launch of bitcoin futures, as I believed….

As the ethreum was skyrocketing, litecoin was also joining in the action. I added little more litecoins then.

As I have said in the “Long Cryptocurrencies” article, “I have no idea where Bitcoin price will be at tomorrow, next week, next month, next year, next decade.

For 2018, let’s see if I open another FX account. This one just might be algo-based.

Passive Equity Portfolio: Annual Report

Let’s get to the ugly truth. Since inception (July 2014), my passive portfolio is up only 2.18%19 times less than the market return during the period. For 2017, the portfolio returned only 3.82%, 6 times less than the market return. Um….um….um, let me try to justify the low returns.

My peers and people jealous of me would be laughing like this:

Kuroda’s evil laugh
2014-2015

When I opened the account in the summer of 2014, TD Ameritrade gave me 2 months to trade for free. So during that time, I wanted to fill the account with stocks. The only problem was I did not know which stocks to buy. At the same time, I did not know how to research potential investments.

Mostly guided by “expert” recommendations and positive headlines, I bought some stocks which destroyed my portfolio, including Ford (F), J.C.Penny (JCP), Cisco (CSCO), General Electric (GE), and General Motors (GM). In 2015, I still did not know which stocks to buy. I wanted to do my own research. I decided to research all the stocks that were bought the previous year.

From my research, I found CSCO, GE, and JCP attractive. So I decided to keep them in the portfolio. I even wrote about CSCO and GE on the blog. I did not write on JCP as I was not profoundly convinced. Funny thing is I have never shopped at JCP, just at its competitors. Even my mother did not like J.C. Penny.

I did not like F, yet I decided to keep F in the port because it was not worth getting rid of them at $10 commissions. For GM, I was on the fence. In addition to these names, I decided to research new names and bought some of them. 70% of my portfolio was in cash in January of 2015. In December, it was 42%.

The new stocks I bought in 2015 were non-dividend yielding risky names, such as Bellatrix Exploration (BXE), Twitter (TWTR), and GoPro (GPRO). All of which did not work out well to this day. BXE, because I tried to find a good energy company at the time every energy companies were distressed. I’m very active on Twitter and use GoPro most of the time. So I wanted to invest in them. At that time, I thought Twitter would get acquired, and GoPro management would start to turn things around, and the Karma Drone would be positive for the company’s financials.

2016-2017

In 2016, I continued to research new stocks. However, I did not invest in any of them. I deposited more money into the account during that year. At the end of 2016, 82% of the portfolio was in cash.

I always found real estate interesting. Used to read about them. My interest in the real estate market skyrocketed after my first ever internship, at a small real estate firm. In January of 2017, I decided to buy WPC, a Real Estate Investment Trust (REIT). During the year, I also bought Verizon (VZ). I did not want the remaining cash in the port to sit idle. So I decided to purchase free commission based short-term bond funds, very stable dividend yielding cash parking (and one high-yield ETF). At the end of 2017, 17% of the port was in cash.

Over the past month, I have been researching consumer goods companies. I’m looking to add one to the port. When I do, I will be sure to write about it.

10 Equities

I’m currently holding 10 companies; CSCO, GE, GM, BXE, WPC, JCP, F, TWTR, GPRO, and VZ.

All shares of 10 different companies belong to 1 class: domestic equity. 62% are in large cap., and 38% are in mid-cap.

On February 16, 2015, I recommended going long Microsoft (NASDAQ: MSFT) when the share price was $43.95. Since then, it is up 101%*. I made a mistake of not buying when I wrote about it. “Put your money where your mouth is, Khojinur.”

On April 12, 2015, I recommended going long General Electric (NYSE: GE). Since then, GE is down 33%*. Dividends are automatically invested in new shares. Average price I paid for the shares is $26. I’m down 29%. Despite the 50% dividend cut recently, I’m staying with the stock for two reasons. The cost-cutting will be the best bet for us the shareholders. The $7 commission fee won’t be worth it, especially since the stock was bought in 2015 when I had less money. If I can open second Robinhood account, I’ll transfer from Ameritrade to the free-commission based brokerage.

In the summer of 2015, I wrote about CSCO (part 1part 2 AND 4Q FY’15 earnings report). Since the first article, the networking giant is up 44%*. Average price I paid for the shares is $25.11. I’m currently up 57%.

On November 21, 2015, I wrote my first article on LLY and believed it was overvalued (it still is). Since then, the pharmaceutical company is up a mere 1.25%*. The second article on LLY was posted a year after the first article. I personally am not short the stock as I cannot short.

On December 26, 2015, I recommended going long GoPro (NASDAQ: GPRO) and believed it was a buy. Since then, the action camera maker and I are down whopping 59%.

On May 2, 2016, I recommended holding FireEye (NASDAQ: FEYE).  Since then, the cybersecurity firm is down 15%.

On January 20, 2017, I recommended going long W.P. Carey (NYSE: WPC). Since then, the REIT is up 11%*. Average price I paid for the shares is $61.44. I’m currently up 10%.

On May 9, 2017, I recommended going long Verizon (NYSE: VZ). Since then, the telecom is up 46%*. Average price I paid for the shares is $46.05. I’m currently up 47%.

*dividends not calculated

Estimated the portfolio dividend yield is 2.48% (that is very similar to the 10-year yield), with largest being 6% and lowest 0%. I plan to increase the portfolio dividend yield by getting rid of non-dividend yielding stocks and/or buying dividend-yielding stocks. That will happen fast, if I can make second Robinhood account and transfer the portfolio to there.

When I started doing research in-depth and writing down my findings and thoughts, everything started to improve. Writing is powerful!

Every new trade and investment will first be announced on Twitter. Almost always!

Active Equity/Commodity Portfolio: Annual Report

Happy New Year! I have no resolutions since every day is like a new year for me.

In 2017, I focused more on active equity/commodity portfolio than the other portfolios as I finally was able to trade free of commissions, found more opportunities there and had money saved up from off-book jobs.

WHAT A BORING YEAR…for the stock market. Sometimes, boring is good. S&P 500 was up 21.64%.

Figure 1: S&P 500 Annual Return (Includes Dividends).
Source: Aswath Damodaran, NYU Stern

The geometric average return since the financial crisis is 8.42% (2008-2017). Geometric average better reflects the returns over time since there’s always volatility in the market and volatility lower investment returns.

Since inception (November 2016), active equity/commodity portfolio is up 15.74%. For 2017, the portfolio returned 11.86%, way way below the market. No wonder active managers are not anyone’s favorites at this time.

Figure 2: Active Equity/Commodity Portfolio (Robinhood) P/L since inception (Nov. 2016).
The white line represents the start of the year.

I will address the significant drawdown you see in figure 2 at the bottom of this post.

The biggest gain of the year, both in a percentage and nominal terms, came from the first trade in 2017. The trade was long NUGT (3x leveraged gold ETF). I believed gold was unfairly beaten down and would recover around the new year as portfolios would be rebalanced and uncertainty with Trump’s economic plans at the time would force investors to hedge their portfolio. And that’s what happened in January 2016. I closed the position at 28% gain.

While trading 3x leveraged ETFs, Be cautious as they always go down even though the underlying security goes up. The structure of leveraged and inverse ETFs are different than most retail investors think. They are not a good idea to be held for a longer time and as a significant portion of a portfolio.

The biggest loss of the year, both in a percentage and nominal terms, came from the 5th trade in 2017. The trade was long TVIX (2x leveraged volatility ETN, not ETF). I believed volatility would pick up from February to March (and it did a little bit). However, after TVIX underwent 1:10 reverse split in mid-March, I did not want to risk having the ETN go to single digits once again. So I closed the position at 17% loss.

To briefly sum up, the biggest gain was 28% and the biggest loss was 17%. In positive nominal terms, the profit was three times larger than the loss (positive number).

At the time, both NUGT and TVIX were a significant portion of the portfolio (Robinhood). Over time, I deposited more money into the account as I saved up from off-book jobs and summer internship. The account is now 6 times larger than it was at the beginning of 2017. Larger account allowed me to have more flexibility and lower my exposure to a single trade.

Top 3 Trades and Bottom 3 Trades
Current Positions:

I can only go long securities on Robinhood. Current positions are VRX (The biggest gainer at the moment, 112%. 14% of the portfolio), ORCL, XIV, ILMN, OMER, PSQ, SH, COL, TEVA, MTSI, and AXON (The biggest loser at the moment, -77%. 0.5% of the portfolio).

When talking about % gains on trades, traders should also look at those trades as a % of the portfolio. If I’m going to speculate on a one-time event, such as FDA ruling on a drug, I’m going to have a small exposure to that company (such as AXON). If I am profoundly convinced on the fundamentals of the company and/or technicals of the stock, I will have a higher exposure to that company (such as VRX).

It’s important to point once again these gains/losses are unrealized. The returns are subject to change…until the position closes.

Both PSQ and SH are inverse ETFs of the market. I have bought them as a small hedge for my portfolio as I’m long individual U.S. stocks.

Why am I long the stocks mentioned above? I will not go in-depth here.

  • $VRX: Extension of debt. Time flexibility to restructure the company.
  • $ORCL: Unfair share-price beat down after positive earnings report and market, in general, is trending higher.
  • $XIV: Because why not?
  • $ILMN: Someone is loading up big amounts of calls. Speculation it will be acquired at a huge premium.
  • $OMER: Friend’s advice (first time I took friend’s advice with actual money at risk).
  • $PSQ and $SH: Small hedge, as I mentioned above.
  • $COL: Speculated it might be acquired at 15-25% premium. United Tech (UTX) later acquires them at 18% premium.
  • $TEVA: TEVA calls were active after Allergan (AGN) was halted. Speculated upcoming positive news for TEVA. The week after, new CEO news. Sticking to TEVA as the new CEO has a great reputation and I’m confident his tenure will reward the shareholders.
  • $MTSI: Calls active and social media sentiment.
  • $AXON: Speculation on Alzheimer drug data. Chances were low, but I believed even a small positive side of the drug would help the stock price. I was wrong. Was initially 2% of the portfolio. Now 0.5%. Still open as I have nothing to lose.
Get Out?
Over 12% loss of value in less than 2 months (Fall 2017).
The face is from the movie “Get Out

As you saw in figure 2 (and figure 3 below), there was a large drawdown in the portfolio. Over 12% of the portfolio lost value in less 2 months. Why was that? It was largely due to VRX and TEVA tumbling. Both were little longer-term strategy and high conviction both companies would turn itself around. After 2 months, both stocks rebounded and hit 52-week highs afterward. Other stocks in the port during the 2 months were performing fine.

If it is one thing I learned as a trader, it is that high conviction leads to an ego which then leads to losses most of the time. So did I have an ego in this case? I don’t believe so. I was sticking to the initial trade strategy on VRX and TEVA, and there was no material news. It was the market noise. If the company fundamentals changed, then I might have changed my strategy on the trade (either close, cut down, or buy more shares).

 

Upcoming ‘Portfolio Performance’ articles will be on other portfolios.

Long Cryptocurrencies

Hi, humans and some robots that will flood this website’s traffic. Are you the one that brought up Bitcoin in Thanksgiving dinner? I will keep this article brief. As I started writing, I got too excited and wrote even more than I initially intended. Writing is powerful.

About 5% of my capital is in Bitcoin ($BTCUSD), Ethereum ($ETHUSD), and Litecoin ($LTCUSD). I suggest you go long these with the amount of money you can afford to lose without pain.

Mind me with “BITCOIN IS IN A HUGE BUBBLE.” Don’t waste time valuing bitcoin as it were just another type of security. There is no clear way to value these. So why not put the money you can afford to lose? It will just continue rising for who knows how long. Or you will just lose the money and continue to live as usual. Buy and Hold Cryptocurrencies.

Cryptocurrencies are a new asset class that serves decentralized applications (which allows you to do something you do today, but without the middle-man). Like stocks serve companies. Municipal bonds serve states and cities. Etc.

How can I buy Bitcoin? The easiest way to use middle-man brokerages. The most popular one in the U.S. is Coinbase.

As bitcoin price surged, so too have the number of Coinbase accounts. In the past 12 months, the number of Coinbase users increased 167% to 13.1 million. Coinbase now has more accounts than Charles Schwab which has 10.2 million accounts.

Bitcoin Price vs. Coinbase Accounts: 2013-2017
Source: Bespoke

Just today, all three cryptocurrencies, brave people and I hold hit All-Time-Highs (ATH). ATH headlines literally every day when it comes to Bitcoin.

Humans of planet Earth have been calling Bitcoin a bubble since $2000. Yet, it keeps going up and up and up…. Crashes few times about 20-30% time to time. Within days, it will hit ATH again. Like I keep saying to a countless number of people who ask me about Bitcoin. I have no idea where Bitcoin price will be at tomorrow, next week, next month, next year, next decade. But, I’m absolutely willing to put the amount of money I can afford to lose without sadness.

From what I noticed there are two types of people calling Bitcoin a bubble;

  • Inexperienced people without knowledge of basic economics and finance. Some keep comparing “Bitcoin bubble” to Tulip Bulbs, when in fact they don’t know anything about tulips. They still might turn out to be right.
  • Those people who missed out the increase in Bitcoin’s value. They still have an opportunity to buy.

At Delivering Alpha last September (which I did not attend this time around), JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon called bitcoin a “fraud” that will eventually blow up. Eventually.

He also joked about his daughter buying some bitcoin, and now she thinks she’s a genius. He also called any JPMorgan trader who trades bitcoin stupid and should be fired in a second.

I love and respect Jamie Dimon. But, I have to disagree with him on bitcoin. I’m a big fan of him (in addition to all other CEOs of major financial institutions haha). All jokes aside, I do respect him, his passion, his curiosity, and his opinions.

On the same day of Jamie’s comments, I along with other Baruch College students went to Goldman Sachs headquarters for a fireside chat with GS CEO Lloyd Blankfein. One of the questions I wanted to ask him was his reaction to Dimon’s comments AKA his opinion on Bitcoin. Didn’t get that chance. But, great event! Not long afterward that day, news came out stating Goldman Sachs is exploring a new trading operation dedicated to cryptocurrencies.

The technology behind bitcoin, Blockchain, is the real winner here. How can I and you benefit from it? Find companies that are heavily investing in the blockchain.

Decentralized services have a lot of challenges compared to their centralized counterparts. For one, they are slower.

  • Visa processed over 42 billion transactions in the second quarter or around 5,500 transactions per second. Whereas Bitcoin’s Blockchain is limited to less than 10 transactions per second. To put this in perspective, Bitcoin can only handle about 5% of the transactions that Paypal processes a day.
    • If you have been following Bitcoin development, you would know there was a “fork” which gave birth to a new currency, Bitcoin Cash (Bitcoin holders got free Bitcoin Cash!!!). Bitcoin cash is capable of handling about 60 transactions per second, a significant improvement I’m not going into depth about those, but to learn more about Bitcoin forks and Bitcoin Cash, check this article, Bitcoin Cash is Bitcoin. A lot of innovation in this space.
    • Remember, Bitcoin forks gives you free cash…if you own Bitcoin. If you use third-party to buy/sell bitcoin, you might run into some issues which can be worked out with the help of other Bitcoin holders and threats.

Other challenges include the cost of transactions (which Bitcoin Cash also addresses), volatile and uncertain governance, etc.

CME Group recently announced to launch Bitcoin futures at the end of the year. It could lead to more institutional investors entering the market….and more power to bears. But don’t let that stop you from buying bitcoin. Even Dimon at the same Delivering Alpha said,

“I am not saying go short. Bitcoin could touch $100,000 before it goes down. So this is not (what you) advise somebody to do.”

It is true Bitcoin could touch $100,000 before it collapses 99.99%. Or it could touch $1,000,000 before dying.

So, take 5-10% of your money which you can afford to lose and buy bitcoin and some other digital currencies with big market capitalizations.

Warning: Be careful. Some people had their cryptocurrencies stolen. Coinbase posted useful post on how to protect your digital currencies.

People who got hacked seems to be the people that announced to the public (via Twitter, blogs, etc) they are invested in the new asset class. While back, I tweeted I’m invested. And now this blog. I’m scared!!!

Twitter account: @Khojinur30

Take some precautions.

I wrote this article right after my parents asked about Bitcoin and expressed an interest to buy it. I was shocked to hear my parents say it. So now I will interview them, get access to their finances, and decide whatever they should invest in it or not. If so, by how much? #HelpPeopleAchieveTheirFinancialGoals

Disclaimer: The views expressed and any forward-looking statements are as of the date indicated and are those of the author. Discussions of individual securities, or the markets generally, are not intended as individual recommendations. Future events or results may vary significantly from those expressed in any forward-looking statements; the views expressed are subject to change at any time in response to changing circumstances in the market. Khojinur Usmonov disclaims any obligation to publicly update or revise any views expressed or forward-looking statements.

The Importance of Downside Protection

Big-Risk = Big-Return is true for individual securities. But not for a portfolio. A common misconception for investors (and traders).

Risk-Reward has a positive correlation, but it’s not perfect.

Risky securities are diversifiable by lower correlated/negative correlated securities. By buying low correlated securities to hedge your risky security, are you lowering your upside? No. You’re lowering your downside.

For investors, capital preservation is more important than the growth of capital. The bigger the investment loss, the greater the gain required to break even. A 20% investment loss requires a 25% gain to get back to the initial investment value. Whereas a 40% loss requires 67% and 70% loss requires 233%. The best offense is a good defense.

The Importance of Downside Protection

If you invest $10,000 in S&P 500 ETF and a recession causes the market to drop 30%, the $7,000 value would need to gain 43% to get back to $10,000.

Let’s look at the following 3 portfolios, each with a different strategy:
  • Portfolio 1 is invested 100% in S&P 500 (SPY).
    • SPY’s annualized standard deviation is 15%.
  • Portfolio 2 is invested 60 and 40 in S&P 500 (SPY) and Investment Grade Bond Fund (FBNDX).
    • Both are 0.31 correlated, based on annual returns.
    • FBNDX’s stdev is 4%.
  • Portfolio 3 is invested 33.34%, 33.33% and 33.33% in S&P 500 (SPY), Investment Grade Bond Fund (FBNDX) and U.S Real Estate ETF (IYR), respectively.
    • IYR is 0.69 correlated to SPY. 0.63 correlated to FBNDX. Correlation is based on annual returns.
    • IYR’s stdev is 21%.

* I initially wanted to backtest them for 30 years, but since IYR was the only real estate ETF I could find with the earliest fund inception date (June 2000), the backtest is from Jan 2001 to Dec 2016.

** Link to the data above can be found here.

Each portfolio is rebalanced annually. Dividends and distributions are reinvested. Taxes and transaction fees are not included.

Here’s the growth of each portfolio over the past 16 years.

3 Portfolio Backtest (Inflation Adjusted). January 2001 – December 2016
  • Port 1 has returned annual growth rate of 3.26%, after inflation.
  • Port 2 has returned annual growth rate of 3.36%, after inflation.
  • Port 3 has returned annual growth rate of 4.75%, after inflation.

Portfolio 1 and 2 have very similar returns. However, the traditional 60/40 portfolio (port 2) took much less risk than all-in portfolio (port 1).

Port 2 had a maximum drawdown of 35% while port 1 had 51%. Portfolio 2’s standard deviation (9%) was almost half the stdev of portfolio 1 (15%).

Port 3, on the other hand, had 45% max drawdown with a standard deviation of 11%, both in the middle of port 1 and port 2. However, they returned much higher.

3 Portfolio Backtest. January 2001 – December 2016. The “Final Balance” and “CAGR” numbers you see above are not inflation-adjusted.

Also, port 3’s Sharpe ratio, Sortino ratio, and Treynor ratio are all higher than the other two.

There are a lot of things to look at when determining which portfolio might be the best for a long-term investor. My favorite is portfolio 3, although the volatility is higher than portfolio 2. REITs (in port 3) provide a strong portfolio diversification with lower exposure to market volatility and attractive dividends.

You can see the backtest here for yourself.

Investors vs. Mr. Market

Downside protection strategies may help prevent investors from their bad habits of overreacting to downside volatility and incorrectly timing the market, missing the boat of high returns. Over the past year, S&P gained 18.10% while an average investor gained half of the growth.

S&P 500 vs Average Investor Return.
1-Year up to September 8, 2017.
Source: Openfolio

If you are a passive investor, consider downside protection strategies to limit volatility and build wealth over the long-term.

Diversify portfolio with:

I endorse the idea of employing a multi-asset strategies that lower the downside potential while increasing the upside potential or even decreasing the upside potential less than the decrease in the downside potential.

I am not saying you should allocate your portfolio to every asset there is. It depends on your goals, lifestyle, risk preferences, your responsibilities, the investment % of your overall capital, etc etc etc.

How you allocate each security is up to you (or your financial advisor), or me me me me.

No portfolio is risk-free, but minimizing the downside can help mitigate the pain inflicted by market “fire and fury” and a changing risk landscape in globalization era.

If you have any questions/comments/suggestions, feel free to contact me personally and/or leave a comment below.

PS: Maybe make Bitcoin/Ethereum/Litecoin 5% of your portfolio.

PS: Active traders should also minimize the downside risk, especially if you work, have school, etc.

PS: Never mind. Thank you for reading. Don’t forget to subscribe.

Couple of Announcements

1st Announcement

On the morning of Wednesday, May 10, I decided to check the Facebook notifications. Before I can check it, the first thing I see on the timeline is an article from Wall Street Journal (WSJ) that a friend shared a couple of minutes before. The article was titled “Sorry, Harvard and Yale, the Trading Whiz Kids Are at Baruch College.”

Baruch College, a city college that I attend, got mentioned on WSJ. Big deal. And it has to do with trading. Big deal.

Minutes after I finished reading the article that morning, the article started spreading around like a wildfire. It was the talk of the town.

The next day, I decided to stop by the trading floor at my college quickly to export important statistics to PDF. What I didn’t know was that CNBC was about to go live.

So I’m sitting on Bloomberg Terminal desk with a trader discussing the current events and S&P 500. We were in a deep conversation and CNBC decided to live stream a portion of our passionate conversation…on mute, unfortunately.

Khojinur Usmonov discussing the current events and S&P 500 Index with another trader
Source: CNBC, “Nation’s top trading club comes from New York public college

First I was interview by Bloomberg. Now, I was on CNBC live, but not interviewed. In other words, millions of people watching CNBC did not know my name. Say my name.

Interviewed By Bloomberg

I’m proud of Baruch College.

2nd Announcement

Read this thread:

As to blogging, I’m not 100% sure if I will be able to write articles. If I can, I plan to write it and publish it here on Out of WACC. If not, you won’t see new articles until the end of August/early September.

Verizon: A Recession-Resistant Dividend Stock (Seeking Alpha Article)

Summary

  • Telecom sector tends to outperform during a recession.
  • Buying Verizon to reduce the volatility of a portfolio and increase dividend yield.
  • Verizon’s unlimited plan will fit in with the crowd.
  • According to customers, Verizon is better.

To keep reading more, click here for the SA article. Or copy/paste: https://seekingalpha.com/article/4071067-verizon-recession-resistant-dividend-stock.