Category: Equities

Microsoft beats earnings expectations: Stock rises more than 10%

Previous post about Microsoft: https://www.outofwacc.com/microsoft-earnings-game-changer-product-hololens/

Earnings:

On April 23, 2015 (Thursday), Microsoft (NASDAQ: MSFT) reported its Earnings Release FY15 Q3 that exceeded analyst’ estimates for both revenue and earnings. Microsoft reported revenue of $21.73 billion for the quarter, up 6.5% year-over-year. Net income fell to $4.99 billion, or 61 cents per share, from $5.66 billion, or 68 cents, a year earlier (10% decline year-over-year).

Microsoft’s restructuring plan announced in July 2014 (job cuts) and the ongoing integration of the Nokia Devices and Services business, which Microsoft acquired for $7.2 billion last year, had $190 million, or a $0.01 per share negative impact.

Satya Nadella, CEO of Microsoft, has been changing strategy to focus more on cloud and mobile software, since demand for PCs are decreasing as new technologies are replacing the PCs. Cloud revenue is growing. Overseas sales have been hurt by a strong dollar and geopolitical concerns in Russia and China.

The currency fluctuations, including a  strong dollar had a significant impact on results. Excluding the effect of Forex market, revenue and gross margin would have grown 9% and 4%, respectively, and operating income and EPS would have declined 4% and 7%, respectively.

Source: https://www.microsoft.com/investor/EarningsAndFinancials/Earnings/PressReleaseAndWebcast/FY15/Q3/default.aspx
Source: https://www.microsoft.com/investor/EarningsAndFinancials/Earnings/PressReleaseAndWebcast/FY15/Q3/default.aspx

Cloud software sales increased, while demand for personal computer product decreased. Personal computer are dead-end. Commercial revenue grew 5% to $12.8 billion, led by commercial cloud which grew 106%. Cloud market is gaining traction and I believe Microsoft is doing the right thing by focusing more on the cloud market.

Microsoft 10 operating system is coming. Microsoft is offering free upgrades for some customers. Microsoft is hoping that their PC sales will increase after the launch of Windows 10.

Microsoft Build Developer Conference 2015

At Build Conference, Microsoft announced the Windows Holographic Platform for developers to develop apps for HoloLens. Developers would love to get their hands on HoloLens. Microsoft still hasn’t disclosed the price and when it will be released. I still believe HoloLens will be the next “Big Thing”.

Windows 10 could the first universal Operating System. We soon will find out.

Microsoft announced its replacement for Internet Explorer, Microsoft Edge. The question is “Will it be successful?”

Microsoft (NASDAQ: MSFT) Stock

Investors loved the earnings report. The stock rose more than 10%.

NASDAQ: MSFT - Daily Chart
NASDAQ: MSFT – Daily Chart

 

As stated in my previous post about MSFT ( https://www.outofwacc.com/microsoft-earnings-game-changer-product-hololens/ ), I said that the fall in the stock’s price was a good buying opportunity. If you took my suggestion, you now have more than 10% return. I still haven’t brought MSFT. I may have missed the opportunity. Though my experience in investing, I learned that you should not let your emotions effect your investment decisions. If you missed the opportunity, you missed one of many. There are many other opportunities. All you got to do is catch them.

I still may buy MSFT soon, even at its current price.

 

If you have any questions or comments, feel free to comment below and/or contact me by going to “Contact Me” page. Thank you.

GE’s slight positive earnings report and it’s about to change

Previous post about GE: https://www.outofwacc.com/ges-massive-makeover/

UPDATE:

On April 17, 2015, General Electric (NYSE:GE) reported Q1 2015 earnings results. GE reported $34.09 billion and $5.08 billion in segment revenue and profit, respectively, compared to Q1 2014 results of $35.06 billion and $5.21 billion in segment revenue and profit, respectively. In earnings per share (EPS) terms, GE reported EPS of $0.31 per share, which compares against $0.33 per share in the same quarter last year, down 6% year-over-year, but still managed to beat the consensus estimate of $0.30 per share.

Their earnings were impacted by Forex market and significant charges related to GE Capital exit activities. During the Q1 2015 conference call,  Mr. Jeffrey Bornstein, Senior Vice President (SVP) and Chief Financial Officer (CFO) for GE, highlighted a common issue felt by many international companies: “Foreign exchange was approximately $940 million drag on Industrial segment revenue and about $120 million impact on op profit.” Almost $1 billion currency market impact only effected 4% of industrial revenue. However, the management stated “Despite this headwind, industrial segment operating profit was up 9%.

 

GE Industrial Segment Revenue year-over-year
GE Industrial Segment Revenue year-over-year

 

As seen above, the picture shows Industrial Segment revenue year-over-year. There was not much of change. I believe it’s going to change since GE is taking a bold move.

Even though GE faced many headwinds, including from foreign exchange and low oil prices, they still managed to grow. Strong dollar and low energy prices are only temporary. It’s just a matter of time before the dollar depreciates and oil prices rebound. I have no doubt that GE will continue to succeed.

GE recorded a health margin improvement in the 1st quarter. Industrial segment gross margin increased 90 basis points (bps), or 0.9% to 26.2%, while operating profit margins increased by 120 bps, or 1.2% to 14.6%. The company is cutting costs and simplifying operations to lift margins, which is a positive sign.

Recently, GE announced to reduce the size of its financial arm, GE Capital, significantly. Last quarter, revenue from GE Capital fell 39%. This is because GE have already started reducing the size of GE Capital to become an industrially focused company, which I look it as positive in the longer term. A negative side of GE Capital reduction are taxes. GE will be losing out on significant tax breaks. GE Capital has helped GE lower its effective tax rate in the past. In 2014, GE’s effective tax rate was around 10%. Now, it moved up to about 23%. While this is a big difference, it should not be concern for investors, because it is in line with other industrial companies. Financial companies are the most vulnerable to shocks of the global financial markets. Thus, GE is taking the right move to spin off its financial unit. In a long-term, I believe more focused industrial company is positive for GE.

GE is known for its dividends. GE pays shareholders $0.92 annual dividend, or 3.43% yield, which is really impressive.

GE expects double-digit Industrial operating EPS growth to $1.20-$1.20 per share, 2%-5% industrial segment organic revenue growth, and increased margins. The company also expects high-value industrial to comprise more than 90% of GE earnings by 2018.

To conclude, I plan to hold my position (more details on previous post: https://www.outofwacc.com/ges-massive-makeover/). I will be adding more shares through dividend reinvestment, or Dividend Reinvestment Plan (DRIP) program. I also might buy additional shares. I strongly believe GE’s restructuring plan will lead to significant capital appreciation and I have no doubt GE will increase its dividend distribution.

 

General Electric (NYSE: GE) Hourly Chart
General Electric (NYSE: GE) Hourly Chart

 

Feel free to comment below. If you need to contact me, click “Contact Me” above and send your message. Thank you.

GE’s massive makeover

Last Friday (April 10, 2015), General Electric (GE) announced a plan to sell off real estate and reduce the size of their financial business. They will be selling majority of GE Capital Real Estate assets for about $26.5 billion. GE will also sell away the remaining portion of GE Capital. It aims to complete the sale of GE Capital over the next two years.

GE’s financial unit is one of the largest financial entities, with assets of half a trillion dollars. It includes everything from consumer loans to property. When the financial crisis hit, earnings from GE’s finance unit collapsed. There were (still is) strict regulations on financial services. As a result, Jeff Immelt, CEO of GE, promised to shrink the finance arm.

Ever since the financial crisis, G.E. has taken small steps to shrink its finance operations. Last year, it spun off its private-label credit card business, known as Synchrony Financial (Ticket: SYF), for $2.9 billion initial public offering (IPO).

To who? GE said it would sell nearly all of its real estate portfolio to investors including Blackstone Group and Wells Fargo & Co for $26.5 billion. There are a further $165 billion of assets that needs to be sold. There will be buyers other than Blackstone Group and Wells Fargo & Co. The company plans to keep the finance assets directly related to selling its products such as jet engines, medical equipment, and electrical grid gear. Remember; Warren Buffett has a stake in both GE and Well Fargo. I believe Warren Buffett will be increasing his stake in GE.

Why now? GE is selling their real estate and financial business for two reasons. First, commercial real estate prices are up. Commercial real estate prices are higher today than it was before the financial crisis. Lastly, rates are still low. If the Fed hikes interest rates (cost of borrowing rises), it will be unattractive to finance any deal. Therefore, it’s a perfect time to take an advantage of the low rates and the high prices.

Source: http://www.greenstreetadvisors.com/about/page/cppi/
Source:       http://www.greenstreetadvisors.com/about/page/cppi/

GE is taking the right move, by focusing more on industrial sector. By beginning to sell $26.5 billion worth of real estate assets, GE will be returning to a kind of company it is supposed to be, an industrial company. GE’s operations include jet engines, oil drilling equipment and medical devices. I would not be surprised if GE makes industrial acquisitions, both small and big. I would not even be surprised if GE merges with another industrial business.

Investors are very happy with the deal, including me. General Electric’s stock (Ticker: GE) rose more than 10%, on a heavy volume, to $28.68, highest since September 2008. On Friday, more than 350 million shares (GE) were traded. GE expects to return more than $90 billion in cash to investors through dividends, share buybacks and the Synchrony exchange through the end of 2018. $50 billion will come from a share repurchase program, one of the biggest on record. As of January 31, GE had 10.06 billion shares outstanding. GE expects to reduce it by 20% to 8-8.5 billion by 2018. In the longer term, the stock price will continue to increase.

GE (General Electric) - Daily
GE (General Electric) – Daily

Not only GE wins here, but also Uncle Sam. GE will bring back $36 billion in cash that resides overseas and will have to pay tax to the U.S government, ranging from $4 billion to $6 billion.

GE said it would take after-tax charges of about $16 billion for the restructuring in the first quarter, with $12 billion being non-cash charges. It will reduce their Earnings Per Share (EPS). On Friday (April 17, 2015), GE will report their first quarter earnings.

GE expects that by 2018 more than 90% of its earnings will be generated by its industrial businesses, up from 58% in 2014.

Past & Future:

GE's past and future
GE’s past and future (source: http://www.ge.com)

 

 Note: I currently own shares in GE, which I brought last year at $25.83. I plan to hold on to it. I may even buy more shares. I believe GE’s share-price will reach $38 by the first half of 2016.

If you have any questions, feel free to contact me, and/or leave comments. Thank you.

UPDATE: Click https://www.outofwacc.com/ges-slight-positive-earnings-report-and-its-about-to-change/ or click here.

Ugly Jobs Report Is Just Temporary

Last Friday (April 3, 2015), March non-farm payrolls came out very negative. Non-farm payrolls slowed in March to a seasonally adjusted 126,000, slowest since December 2013. Unemployment rate held unchanged at 5.5%. The downturn in the jobs report could delay the Federal Reserve’s plan on raising the interest rates. Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) have said in the past that continued improvement in labor would be a key factor on the timing of the rate-hike. I, now, believe there is a little chance of rate-hike in June.

What caused the downturn in the labor market? I believe it was because of the bad weather, plunging oil prices, and the strong dollar. The bad weather have caused businesses, especially in construction, to lose profits and to halt hiring. However, weather is a transitory factor. Plunging oil prices have left the oil industry in the dust. Oil companies are not being able to make revenue/profit. As a result, they had to layoff some of their employees. Strong Dollar is putting pressure on export-driven manufacturers, resulting in lower sales leading to layoffs. It’s also making it harder for U.S. businesses to sell goods aboard. I believe majority of U.S businesses’ revenue or earning per share (EPS) will less than expected, for the quarter.

Not only did we get to see March jobs report, but there were revisions to February and January jobs reports. January job creation was revised lower to 201,000 from 239,000 (-38,000). February job creation was revised lower to 264,000 from 295,000 (-31,000). I believe March jobs report will also be revised.

The labor-force participation rate was at 67.8%, lowest since February 1978. It shows that there’s less confidence in jobs market. Therefore, people have stopped looking for jobs. Average hourly earnings rose 7 cents or 0.3% to $24.86. The earnings can be a indicator for inflation. If it increases, inflation is more likely to increase too. Walmart and McDonald are increasing wages for majority of its employees, if not all of them.

Reactions to the report:

U.S Dollar (foreign exchange, or Forex) reacted negatively. U.S Equity markets were closed for Good Friday. We will get to see the reaction of equity market in the morning (Monday, April 7, 2015). I believe it will rise since negative jobs report could delay the rate-hike, since low interest-rate environment can very attractive to investors, including me.

 

If you have any questions, feel free to contact me anytime and/or leave comments. Thank you.

Kraft and Heinz to merge backed by Warren Buffett and 3G Capital

Last Wednesday (March 25, 2015), it was announced that Kraft Foods Group and H.J Heinz would merge in a deal backed by Warren Buffett and 3G Capital. The deal is expected to be valued above $45 billion and it is expected to become final on June 30.  3G Capital, a Brazilian investment and management group combined with Berkshire Hathaway in 2013 to buy Heinz for $28 billion.

The merger will create the world’s fifth-biggest food and beverage company. The new company will be called “The Kraft Heinz Co.”. The new company will have revenues of approximately of $28 billion. It will have over 45,000 employees. Kraft shareholders are very happy because they will receive a special cash dividend of $16.50 per share and stock representing 49% of the new company. Existing Heinz shareholders will own 51%. Berkshire Hathaway and 3G Capital will invest $10 billion to fund the special dividend. The new company’s enterprise value is around $110 billion.

As Warren Buffett always buys businesses that he understands, he clearly understand the food industry. Plus, the food industry is a “need” for all of us, in order to survive.  Following the announcement of the deal, Buffett mentioned in a CNBC that that he plans to own Kraft and Heinz “forever”. Berkshire Hathaway is going to be the largest shareholder of the new company.  Berkshire Hathaway will own over 320 million shares of the new company. Kraft’s (KRFT) outstanding shares will increase after the deal.

Consumer packaged goods are very competitive world. Customers, including me are price sensitive. Kraft has $18 billion in annual sales and Heinz has $11 billion in annual sales. The merger will give the new company the advantage over the competitors. Kraft’s majority of sales are in the United States. Heinz’s majority of sales are outside the United States. The deal will help increase Kraft’s sales by using Heinz’s international resources. Kraft will be able to open new markets aboard for Kraft, increasing Kraft’s revenue.

On CNBC, Buffett said that Berkshire would stay invested in Kraft Heinz “forever” and that he views their food brands as enduring. Berkshire will own about 320 million shares of the combined company’s 1.2 billion shares. Their per-share value will be determined by the stock market when they are issued.

Remember that deal has to be approved by Kraft shareholders and federal regulators, before it becomes final. I strongly believe Kraft shareholders will approve this deal because Kraft (KRFT) shares rose after the announcement. I’m not sure about federal regulators. Federal regulators might look this at a “monopoly” and not approve the deal because it reduces the competition.

Investors loved the deal. Kraft’s shares (KRFT) rose about 36% on a heavy volume. It’s currently around $89. I would not buy the stock at this time because it’s little bit expensive and the deal is not final yet.

 

Kraft (KRFT) - Daily
Kraft (KRFT) – Daily