Equity/Commodity Portfolio Performance: Inception & 2016

In the previous article, I laid out my performance for Forex portfolio since inception and for the year 2016. This one will briefly lay out the equity/commodity portfolio performance. Briefly, because I don’t have much statistics on it than for FX……for now.

Before going further, I should note: “Average price” includes Dividend Reinvestment Plan (DRIP) – the dividends I received were used to buy additional shares in the company.


Since inception (summer of 2014), I’m down 31%. I’m currently holding 9 companies, including the ones I wrote article(s) about; GoPro (NASDAQ:GPRO), General Electric (NYSE:GE), and Cisco (NASDAQ:CSCO). I don’t have Eli Lilly (NYSE:LLY) since my broker doesn’t allow me to short.

All shares of 9 different companies belong to 1 class: domestic equity. 59.4% is in large cap. 18.89% in mid cap. 3.66% in small cap. And 18.05% in “other domestic equity.” Will change the allocation this year; international equity, fixed income, etc.

On February 16, 2015, I wrote about Microsoft (NASDAQ:MSFT) when the share-price was $43.95. Today, it’s trading at $62.14. I missed the opportunity to go long on it.

On April 12, 2015, I wrote about GE and believed GE was a strong by (it still is). Since then, GE is up 12.30%, from $28.06 to $31.51 (dividends not calculated). Dividends are automatically invested in new shares. Average price I paid for the shares is $25.99. I’m currently up 21.24%.

In the summer of 2015, I wrote about CSCO (part 1, part 2 AND 4Q FY’15 earnings report). Since the first article, CSCO is up 7.97%, from $27.99 to $30.22 (dividends not calculated). Average price I paid for the shares is $24.85. I’m currently up 21.61%.

On November 21, 2015, I wrote my first article on LLY and believed it was overvalued (it still is). Since then, LLY is down 13.98%, from $85.50 to $73.55. Second article on LLY was posted very recently.

On December 26, 2015, I wrote about GPRO and believed it was a buy. Since then, GPRO (and I) are down whopping 52.62%, from $18.34 to $8.69.

For the last year, my equity portfolio is down 12.61%. Because of $9.99 trade fee and low capital, I have refused to buy some stocks I wanted at times.

I recently opened Robinhood, broker with $0 commission. I’m planning to use it to actively trade equities and commodities.

As to commodities, I’m up 8.25% since inception (fall of 2016). I’m currently holding 50 shares of Direxion Daily Gold Miners Bull 3X Shares (NUGT), which is up 24.03%.

I might change my broker to Interactive Brokers (IB) from TD Ameritrade, as IB offers more tools for portfolio analysis.

If you didn’t like this performance/article, read the “Forex Portfolio Performance: Inception & 2016.” Maybe you’ll like that performance/article enough to like me again.

If you do, follow me on Twitter (@Khojinur30). I tweet out my trades live. If you don’t, peace.

Forex Portfolio Performance: Inception & 2016

 

WHAT A YEAR! Market sell-off. Complete reverse afterwards. Full of surprises, from Brexit to Trump (not for me since I predicted them).

During the global markets crash in August of 2015, I completely lost all the money I made that year plus some more in forex. Witnessing markets free fall – faster than Luke skydiving 25,000 feet without parachute – for the first time ever crushed my account to death. (For the record, I wasn’t trading in 2008 and had absolutely no idea what was unfolding that time).

Thinking euro will go to the parity level by the end of 2015, most of my positions were crowded in shorting EUR (The Big Short). Just when I thought euro would follow the markets, it acted as a safe-haven.

Lessons learned the hard way:

  • Always keep enough cash for emergency and/or new opportunities (could not make new trades)
  • Do not keep most things in one place (EUR short)
  • Do not let the perceptions – media, traders, experts, you name it – fool you (“Euro is not a safe-haven asset”)

Taking all these lessons, I completely changed my strategy and will continue to tweak it to adapt to the current conditions. After taking a break from trading in September (2015), I opened a new forex account.

Started off strongly, with high standard deviations, but enough for me to sit through that. High-risk/High-reward. As I continued tweaking my strategy, I reduced the swings in the P/L.

Figure 1: Forex Portfolio % Returns Since Inception (09/29/2015)

Starting in August 18 of this year (2016), my returns have been very stable, trending upwards (see Figure 1). It went from 144.49% return to 184.42% as of the last trading day in 2016. Last August, I made a significant chance to my strategy which led to stable returns trending upwards. I continue to tweak my strategy little by little until significant change is needed. Repeat.

Since inception (09/29/2015), I have returned 184.42%. In the second half of this year, I deposited more money into the account. In turn, the % returns you see in the pictures above and below, has a huge difference in nominal amounts.

Figure 2: Forex Portfolio Performance Since Inception

In 2015, I returned 117.48%. This year, I have returned 32.82%. Since the inception, percentage of profitable trades are 50.70%, with the average gain per trade 3.82 larger than the amount of average loss per trade.

Sharpe ratio is 1.13 (not good yet), with average monthly return of 11.01% and 33.79% standard deviation of monthly return. Compounded monthly rate of return is 7.22%.

I predicted Brexit and profited bigly off it. 30.77% of the profit came from pair GBP/USD. Thanks Brexit. How did I predict Brexit?

Predicting Brexit – 6 tweets
Figure 3: Top 3 FX pair P/L as a % of the total P/L

Largest loss was 5.21%, from pair AUD/USD. I don’t know what to blame except myself.

As to predicting Trump’s win, the profit was a fraction of Brexit profit, via other pairs than Mexican peso currency. The day after the election, the peso suffered its largest one-day drop since the Tequila Crisis of the 1990s. Too bad I did not have access to peso pair at the time. How did I predict Trump win? Tweet 12.

If you invested $1,000 in me at the inception, that money would have been worth $2,844.23 today.

You can still invest in me. Minimum investment is $1,000. Contact me for more details.

Thank you.

Update: “Equity/Commodity Portfolio Performance: Inception & 2016” article is posted.