Update on Microsoft, RBNZ, and upcoming events to watch out.

Update on MSFT: I’m still watching MSFT (Microsoft stock ticker) for good entry. I will go long on it in the future at a good entry price. Microsoft stock and other blue chip stock fell after Intel slashed revenue outlook due to weak PC demand. The decrease in the price of MSFT is still a good buying opportunity.

Microsoft (MSFT) - Hourly
Microsoft (MSFT) – Hourly

Last Wednesday, Reserve Bank of New Zealand left the Official Cash Rate unchanged at 3.5%. NZD (Kiwi) quickly reacted by rising as it disappointed traders who were looking for rate cut. In a statement by the Reserve Bank Governor Graeme Wheeler, cited that the New Zealand dollar “…remains unjustifiably high and unsustainable in terms of New Zealand’s long-term economic fundamentals.”  I still believe that RBNZ will intervene and send NZD down, if not by rate-cut. I would be short on NZD/USD, at this time.

NZD/USD - Hourly
NZD/USD – Hourly

Upcoming: Bank of Japan (BoJ, Late Monday/early Tuesday – March 16/March 17 EST), Federal Reserve (Wednesday – March 18 – 2 P.M EST) and Swiss National Bank (SNB, Thursday – March 19 – 4:30 A.M EST).

BoJ will either hold or increase the stimulus package. If they do, JPY (Yen) will be bearish–sending USD/JPY further up–after rising to over 121.00 this week. If they don’t, we have to watch for their tone. It will be either bearish or bulling on the Yen, depending on what BoJ say, or react.

USD/JPY - Hourly
USD/JPY – Hourly

Federal Reserve will be watched very closely after a very positive non-farm payrolls last week. This week, U.S stocks were a roller coaster. There was a hard sell-off in equities and a bullish USD (U.S Dollar), due to an increasing chance of rate-hike. On Thursday (March 12, 2015), Retail Sales came out very negative. Retail Sales fell 0.6% (-0.6%), worse than expected of 0.3%, following -0.8%. Core Retail Sales (excluding automobiles which accounts for 20% of Retail Sales) fell 0.1% (-0.1%), worse than expected of 0.6%, following -1.1%. However, it was little better than previous report in February. I believe people who are saving money from low oil-prices are probably paying off their debts, before they spend on “wants”. The U.S market reacted positively because some people thought that negative Retail Sales would hold-off the Federal Reserve from raising the interest rates. On Wednesday, the Fed might also drop “patient”, signaling that rate-hike is very close.

S&P 500 (SPX) - Hourly
S&P 500 (SPX) – Hourly
US Dollar - Hourly
US Dollar – Hourly

SNB might set a new floor to the exchange rate (EUR/CHF). I would not trade CHF (Swiss Franc) because of two reasons. One, it’s too violent and there is no clear direction yet. Second, SNB does not know what it’s doing after what they did in January. But, I would still watch out closely, as it might affect other pairs, such as EUR and USD.

EUR/CHF - Daily
EUR/CHF – Daily

US Retail Sales

Yesterday, on January 14, 2014, the U.S Census Bureau released Retail Sales data for the month of December, 2014. It was disappointing and unexpected. Retail sales fell 0.9% (-0.9%) in December (+0.4% in previous month). “Core” retail sales (excludes the prices of autos and gas), fell 1.0% (-1.0%) in December (0.1% in previous month).

Plunging oil prices led to to a 6.5% drop in gasoline sales, the largest drop since 2008. In December, many people and media were saying that the holiday sales were going to be strong. Economic recovery and the falling gas prices would lead consumers to spend their hard earned money in other areas, such as department stores, etc. Yesterday’s release told us otherwise. Excluding auto and gas, retail sales fell 0.3%, (expected gain around 0.4%). Retailers that did well, are bars, restaurants and stores that sell home furnishings. December is one of the months that many people party. Therefore bars and restaurants did well. Many people might like to start their new year by clean and fresh furnishings in their home. That’s why home furnishings did well. I believe the drop in retail sales are only temporary, for now. We never know what future might hold.

I believe technology will be successful more than anything (except needs; foods and drinks). Late 1990s and early 2000s transformed, especially young people into whole new generation. 2015 will be the beginning stage of new era of technology (again). Drones and 3-D printing, google glass and “The Internet of Things” will start to go into mass-market. I think we are too early for drive-less cars to go into masses (maybe, in 2 years). People will be wanting to try the new technology. 3-D printing will lead to many inventions, making certain market more competitive. Drones and google glass will probably transfer people into being photographer or not. New things will be added into existing products, emotionally leading people to buy them.

One wrong move from the government or large companies (that have significant impact on the economy including jobs, etc) will either slow down and shut down “economic recovery”, leading to another crisis.