Baruch College, a city college that I attend, got mentioned on WSJ. Big deal. And it has to do with trading. Big deal.
Minutes after I finished reading the article that morning, the article started spreading around like a wildfire. It was the talk of the town.
The next day, I decided to stop by the trading floor at my college quickly to export important statistics to PDF. What I didn’t know was that CNBC was about to go live.
So I’m sitting on Bloomberg Terminal desk with a trader discussing the current events and S&P 500. We were in a deep conversation and CNBC decided to live stream a portion of our passionate conversation…on mute, unfortunately.
First I was interview by Bloomberg. Now, I was on CNBC live, but not interviewed. In other words, millions of people watching CNBC did not know my name. Say my name.
As to blogging, I’m not 100% sure if I will be able to write articles. If I can, I plan to write it and publish it here on Out of WACC. If not, you won’t see new articles until the end of August/early September.
At 17-years-old, Donald Trump was named a captain for his senior year at a military boarding school. Spending five years at New York Military Academy, the school taught Trump to channel his aggression into achievement.
Under the Trump budget, almost every budget increase goes to military departments, 10% increase Y/Y in the budget for military spending. It’s not a rocket science to figure out Trump madly loves force.
Even Trump’s Secretary of Defense loves force. Mad Dog James Mattis once said, “It’s fun to shoot some people. I’ll be right up there with you. I like brawling.”
At his confirmation hearing in January, Mattis said, “My belief is that we have to stay focused on the military that is so lethal that on the battlefield, it is the enemy’s longest day and worst day when they run into that force.”
Then there came 59 Tomahawk missiles to military bases in Syria and “Mother of All Bombs” on Daesh tunnels in Afghanistan. All of those came during the heightened tensions with North Korea.
War is Good for the Cold-Hearted Stock Market
North Korea acting out is a good thing for America. War throughout the history has made us united. Not to mention that the stock market goes up.
As you can see in figure 2, the stock market barely reacted to the recent U.S. military actions that Trump gave a green light to.
As a trader and investor, I wouldn’t be concerned about the potential war with North Korea. (Although I would be concerned about the loss of human lives and loss of limbs.)
In early 2013, there were increased tensions with North Korea, similar to today. At the time, the stock market did not give a damn about the threats from DPRK.
Not only does the stock market not care about North Korea, but also for any other war in the past century. War is good for the cold-hearted stock market.
Over the past 4 decades, Dow Industrials on average was turned on by U.S.-led military operations, returning 4% in a month after the beginning of military operations and more afterward.
Recent Three Wars
When the U.S., with support from allies, started bombing against Taliban forces in Afghanistan on October 7, 2001, the stock market went up, not down. Even after 12 days later when the first wave of conventional ground forces arrived, the stock market kept going up. By the year-end when Taliban collapsed, S&P 500 was up about 14.5%.
When the U.S. began the major combat operations in Iraq on March 20, 2003, the stock market skyrocketed as shown in the candlestick bar on the highlighted portion of S&P 500 Weekly chart in figure 6 below. By the time the operations ended on May 1, the stock market was up about 11.5%.
The only difference this time is we got leaders who very much loves forces and are violent themselves. Another difference is that North Korea is little powerful today than they were in 2013. But they are very weak compared to China, Russia, Europe, and U.S. It’s better to act now before North Korea gets even stronger. Although lives and limbs will be lost, I think there’s a greater cost if we allow North Korea to get even stronger.
China and North Korea
With China possibly increasingly going against North Korea, Kim Jong-un might act even more violent. I don’t think China really wants to break off its relationship DPKR due to the geographic proximity and China’s willingness to make more friends in the region. Besides being a military and diplomatic ally, China is also an economic ally. In 2015, the second largest economy accounted for 83%, or $2.34 billion, of the North Korea’s exports.
In late February, China sanctioned coal shipments from North Korea, who is a significant supplier of coal. Instead, China has been ordering the coal from the U.S. In the past, Trump said he wants to help the country’s struggling coal sector.
As Reuters reported, Thomson Reuters Eikon data shows “no U.S. coking coal was exported to China between late 2014 and 2016, but shipments soared to over 400,000 tonnes by late February.”
Is China having a change of heart on its relationship with North Korea? I don’t think as China’s trade with North Korea still increased by almost 40% in the first quarter of this year. China also buys other stuff, such as minerals and seafood. Looks like China wants to be on the good side of North Korea and Trump. The Art of the Deal.
Is this time is also different when it comes to the stock market? I don’t believe so. I’m not worried about the negative impact on the stock market due to North Korea, even though they were to be invaded.
However, I’m watching very cautiously China and Russia getting into an armed conflict with the U.S because of the North Korea situation. Armed conflict between the superpowers is a game changer. Although that’s very unlikely as superpowers argue all the time.
Suggestion For Your Portfolio
The situations might affect the markets for a very short period of time, especially if there’s uncertainty. But investors shouldn’t worry about it. The market could care less about a war, specifically when it’s aboard.
During the times of war, don’t reduce your holdings because of misconception war is bad. If you do, you will miss the gains.
In the previous two articles, I wrote about my forex trading and equity investments performance for the first quarter of this year. In this article, I will talk about my 1st quarter performance for equity/commodity trading.
For the first quarter of 2017, my active trading performance for equities and commodities (commodity ETFs) was up 3.51%.
For years, I could not trade equities and commodity ETFs due to commissions. Thanks to Robinhood, I’m not able to trade for free.
I closed the SCO position a month later at 22.55% gain, the biggest gainer of all positions closed during the first quarter of this year.
My biggest loss came from VelocityShares Daily 2x VIX Short-Term ETN (TVIX). I thought volatility would pick up in the coming month (and it did a little bit). However, after they underwent 1:10 reverse split on March 16th, I did not want to risk having the ETN go to single digits once again, so I indeed closed the position at 17.27% loss.
In nominal terms, the 22.55% gain on SCO is 3 times larger than the 17.27 loss on TVIX.
There are other positions that made and lost money. But overall, my portfolio was up 3.51% in the 1st quarter.
I can only go long securities on Robinhood. My current positions are SPXS, WFC, LULU, DIS, EXPE, VRX.
I went long on Direxion Daily S&P 500 Bill and Bear 3x Shares (SPXS), which is inverse of S&P 500, because I believe investors are underestimating the negatives of Trump’s policies. Once investors realize the negatives of Trump’s fiscal policies and/or his actual policies are less stimulative as he proposed, the market will take a dump.
A lot of people think tax rate will be reduced to 15%. I have been watching some of Trump’s TV interviews, especially on Fox News, and it seems Trump himself does not believe tax cut will be 15% or lower. He basically said it might have to be little higher, say around 20%.
I also watched Trump’s body language and I believe Trump is not confident in what he’s saying about his fiscal stimulus plan as he was during the campaign.
So when the actual plan is released, investors will be disappointed.
SPXS is also a small hedge for my portfolio as I’m long individual U.S. stocks.
And finally, I’m long Valeant (VRX). I went long on the pharmaceutical company the day after Bill Ackman revealed he cut his $4 billion loss.
Valeant recently extended the maturity of their debt until the early 2020s, which gives them about 5 years to restructure their capital and the company. Plus, they have over $5 in cash for each share.
Just because Ackman lost big on VRX does not mean he’s not a great investor. He is a great investor (that’s why he’s rich?). If you watch his presentations and talks, he knows about he’s talking about. He does his research and deeply cares about other people. At least that’s what I think.
The current positions I mentioned above can change at any time or reverse. Thank you.
In the previous article, I talked about my performance for Forex portfolio in the first quarter of 2017. This article will lay out the equity investments portfolio performance for the 1st quarter. Unlike for forex, I don’t have much performance results for equity investment portfolio….at least for now.
Cash is trash.
For the first quarter of 2017, my stock investment portfolio was down 1.31%.
In the 1st quarter, I bought W.P. Carey (WPC). In this Seeking Alpha article, I laid out why I bought the diversified REIT.
First, I had a lot of cash sitting in my portfolio. Cash did not add any value to my portfolio.
Second, the ETFs barely moves and yet offers attractive dividends that would be distributed every month, with low expense ratio. Instead of having cash be lazy, the ETFs provided free money since they barely moved in price.
And lastly, the ETFs were commission-free through my broker, Ameritrade. When opportunities arise, I can freely liquidate the ETFs position(s).
All three reasons provided me with great flexibility and free money. The average SEC 30 Day yield from the “big four” is currently 2.43%.
The portfolio of the five ETFs mentioned above returned 2.77% in the past 5 years, with the largest quarterly loss at 2.65% in the 4th quarter of last year and the largest quarterly gain at 1.70% in the 1st quarter of last year. Year-to-date, it’s up 1.32%.
Estimated investment portfolio dividend yield is 2.8%, with largest being 6.4% and lowest 0%. I plan to increase the portfolio dividend yield by getting rid of non-dividend yielding stocks and/or buying dividend-yielding stocks.
I did not sell anything in the portfolio during the first quarter. However, I’m planning to make some changes this quarter, which will be released in the 2nd quarter performance article. But first, I will probably tweet out the changes.
32.30% of my portfolio is currently in cash. I plan to cut that in half. How will I do it? I’m not sure yet. I’m doing research on multiple companies. The one that stands out will be bought and an article about it will be posted, mostly likely on Seeking Alpha.
Note: Equity/Commodity active trading portfolio (Robinhood) performance will be posted later.
As you may know, I published my forex performance for 2016 and since inception. From now on, I will also share my quarterly performance. March 31st marked the end of first quarter, here are my performance results for FX trading.
Forex Trading Performance – Q1 2017
For currency trading, I was up 2.15%. I know, it’s low (in % terms at least). But, allow me to explain.
Before this year, my currency trades used to be in 1,000 units (or 0.01 lots), lowest I can trade. Since I usually had about 10 positions, each of 1,000 units, the nominal amount was large enough. After depositing more money and getting a clear picture of my Forex performance, I decided to increase my trades to 2,000/3,000 units (or 0.02/0.03 lots) for each position.
Getting a clear picture of my performance – average gain/loss, drawdown, trade duration, the percentage of profitable trades, etc – helped me improve my performance significantly.
This quarter [Q1], I further minimized my drawdowns. By minimizing drawdown, I minimized my returns. And that works for me. Stable uptrending P/L with a low risk.
It is true Forex is way riskier than other assets classes due to its leverage, mostly 1:50. But, that does not mean your portfolio has to include a lot of risks.
While 2.15% return this quarter from Forex trading is low, it’s still big in nominal terms for me and I’m getting a much better understanding of my weakness/strengths as I look through the metrics.
I don’t have the key metrics (besides the returns) and charts to share with you for this quarter for one reason: FXCM was Banned from the U.S. (I’m not even surprised after what happened on January 15, 2015).
FXCM is a retail FX broker and my former broker. They were banned by CFTC for defrauding retail foreign exchange customers and engaging in false and misleading solicitations.
As a result, FXCM customers were automatically changed to a different broker, Forex.com by Gain Capital Holdings, on February 24th. Unlike FXCM, this broker did not offer an analysis of trades. In addition to that, a third-party software did not offer an analysis of trades for Gain Capital’s customers since the broker did not allow the software to be connected with it.
Good news is that I’m currently in process of changing the platform to MetaTrader, which will make it easier for me to track performance metrics. The other platform, ForexTrader made it harder for tracking key metrics.
For the next quarter’s results, you can expect to see more performance metrics for FX trading.
Live On Twitter
As you may know, I tweet out trades/investments I’m making. That’s one of many reasons you should follow me on Twitter if you haven’t already. One of many ways I measure success is through twitter followers, believe it or not.
Over the past 40 years (1977 to 2016), S&P 500 has had inflation-adjusted annualized return rate of 7.20%, that’s having dividends reinvested. That means $1 grew to $16.14.
Without dividend reinvestment, S&P 500 has had annualized return of 4.12%, which means $1 grew to $5.02.
Can you see the power of time and compounding? I hope you see it.
Let’s assume you’re 20-years-old, saving $1,000 each year for the next 40 years. When you’re 59, you will have $40,000 in cash. That is considering zero inflation.
Now, let’s assume you invest in the market that will give you inflation-adjusted annualized return of 5%, without dividends. When you’re 59, you will have $97,622.30.
Lastly, let’s assume you invest in the market that will give you inflation-adjusted annualized return of 5%, with 1.5% annual dividend. When you’re 59, you will have $141,731.09.
Oh My God! The Power of Time and Compounding!
If you want to invest, invest now. Don’t let all-time highs scare you.
S&P 500 is currently yielding 1.93% dividend. Since the late 1800s, the lowest dividend yield was 1.11% in August 2000. The average dividend yield is 4.38%.
The returns you see above and below are before taxes. Tax laws might be different in 2056.
In this post, I will outline some of my plans to be a very long-term investor. I’m mostly trader and investor with less than the 5-year horizon.
Money Should Not Be Emotional
Over a year ago, I tried to open a ROTH IRA (retirement) account. After filling out the answers to countless questions, the application asked me to provide a proof of income. At the time, I did not have a job. So I just gave up on the application and did not think about it until last January.
I spent so much money in December and January alone, the expense amount freaked me out. I asked myself two key questions:
What can I do to save more?
What are the non-mandatory expenses?
One of the ways I can save more is, believe it or not, recycling bottles/cans (I don’t consider it income). In a family house of 6, we drink a lot, especially water. I drink about 12 bottles of water a day….using the same bottle. I fill the bottle with boiled water. Others just waste the bottles. I rather profit from people’s mistakes.
All those bottles collected in about two weeks made me $5.65, worth almost 6 pizzas, 2 each day. Or 6 yogurts, 3 each day.
If I make $10 every month for two hours of work, I can make $120 a year. That money can add up over the long term once invested in dividend-yielding ETFs.
I will not continue collecting bottles/cans (side hustle) once I get a full-time job/live on my own. I’m doing this now because I don’t even do my own laundry….yet.
I also figured out the non-mandatory expenses to cut back on, specifically on “ex”-food items I used to buy on a pulse. Small purchases (gum, candy, etc), for example, can add up over time. Those purchases are paid in cash. Well, I don’t carry a lot of cash. I carry reasonable amount. How you define ‘reasonable’ is up to you.
Why I don’t carry a lot of cash:
No track of cash flow. Credit card allows that
Risk of theft
Worried about losing the wallet
To avoid small purchases
Savings and Investing on Auto-Pilot
In January and February, I decided to open multiple accounts to keep my cash, rainy day savings, investments and deposited more money into my Robinhood brokage account.
Why multiple accounts? Because I don’t trust FDIC, which “protects” or “insurances” depositors to at least $250,000 per bank. I’m paranoid someday FDIC won’t be able to protect every depositor, after a major hack or something. Who knows, it might even take a long time to get depositors’ money back.
What if I lose my debit card? I wouldn’t want all/most of my cash in that account. At most, I keep 30% of my cash in the checking account. Now, my cash and short-term securities (stocks, etc) are diversified among multiple accounts.
Besides the savings account (almost 1% interest), I opened two more investments accounts. These accounts are different than Ameritrade/Robinhood.
Financial Literacy Is Very Important
The first account is Acorns, an investment app that rounds up user purchases and invests the change in a robo-advisor managed portfolio. For me, there’s no fee since I’m a student and under 24. I don’t trust robo-advisers, but this case is different. There are only 6 ETFs which I have looked into and decided they were good for the long-term in a diversified portfolio. 75% of its users are millennials.
The second account is Stash, an investment app that allows users to pick stocks in themed based investments around wants (Clean & Green, Defending America, Uncle Sam, etc). This app is also targeted toward millennials. Unlike Acorns, Stash charges you even if you are a student. But, the first three months are free. Like Acorns, Stash has a subscription fee of $1 per month for accounts under $5,000 and 0.25% a year for balances over $5,000.
Studies show 48% of Americans cite a lack of sufficient funds as their main barrier to investing. Luckily, technology is transforming the way people invest. Start small. Before you know it, it is big.
Both of the micro-investing apps are like savings/IRA accounts for me since I can grow my portfolio through dividends. I have checked out the ETFs Acorns invests in, they are good. I have checked out the ETFs Stash offers. Most of them are good. I have invested in the stable ones with low expense ratio relatively to its dividends.
Unlike ROTH IRA, I will need to pay taxes on realized capital gains, dividends and income interest.
Whopping 69% of Americans have less than $1,000 in a savings account and 50% of them have $0 in that account. All these people playing Candy Crush should be thinking about their future. Be a Robo-Saver and Be a Robo-Investor.
Note: All of my $$$ comes from off-book jobs, scholarships, prizes, and living under mommy and daddy’s roof (Can’t wait to move out). This post doesn’t mean I will stop trading. I will continue to trade forex, stocks, and commodities.
These tweets, as you can guess – sent the shares of Lockheed Martin (NYSE: LMT), which is the supplier of F-35 program, and Boeing (NYSE: BA) – down. From both tweets, Lockheed Martin lost billions in market cap. The rival Boeing was barely unchanged at the end, as it means more opportunities for them to gain more contracts.
However, Trump targeted Boeing in earlier December when he tweeted this;
Boeing is building a brand new 747 Air Force One for future presidents, but costs are out of control, more than $4 billion. Cancel order!
Trump’s tweets are just awesome. The volatility it brings allows me to make more money than the non-volatility. As I mentioned in my previous article, I recently opened RobinHood account, broker with $0 commissions. Using the broker in the future, I’m planning to buy some shares of the companies Trump negatively targets, especially if investors overreact.
Since it seems Trump has a strong hatred towards Mexico and the U.S. companies working there, here are the potential targets;
Algos have yet to incorporate Trump’s tweets into their codes. It’s not that simple yet as it can be difficult to determine the sentiment from a tweet. Algos can easily get the direction of the stock wrong. We need more tweets to better analyze it.
But, will the future tweets move the markets or not? It all depends on how successful Trump is in implementing what he tweets. If Trump is unable to do so, he will just lose credibility.
Meanwhile, markets will react to the tweets and I plan to take advantage of them.
In the previous article, I laid out my performance for Forex portfolio since inception and for the year 2016. This one will briefly lay out the equity/commodity portfolio performance. Briefly, because I don’t have much statistics on it than for FX……for now.
Before going further, I should note: “Average price” includes Dividend Reinvestment Plan (DRIP) – the dividends I received were used to buy additional shares in the company.
Since inception (summer of 2014), I’m down 31%. I’m currently holding 9 companies, including the ones I wrote article(s) about; GoPro (NASDAQ:GPRO), General Electric (NYSE:GE), and Cisco (NASDAQ:CSCO). I don’t have Eli Lilly (NYSE:LLY) since my broker doesn’t allow me to short.
All shares of 9 different companies belong to 1 class: domestic equity. 59.4% is in large cap. 18.89% in mid cap. 3.66% in small cap. And 18.05% in “other domestic equity.” Will change the allocation this year; international equity, fixed income, etc.
On February 16, 2015, I wrote about Microsoft (NASDAQ:MSFT) when the share-price was $43.95. Today, it’s trading at $62.14. I missed the opportunity to go long on it.
On April 12, 2015, I wrote about GE and believed GE was a strong by (it still is). Since then, GE is up 12.30%, from $28.06 to $31.51 (dividends not calculated). Dividends are automatically invested in new shares. Average price I paid for the shares is $25.99. I’m currently up 21.24%.
In the summer of 2015, I wrote about CSCO (part 1, part 2 AND 4Q FY’15 earnings report). Since the first article, CSCO is up 7.97%, from $27.99 to $30.22 (dividends not calculated). Average price I paid for the shares is $24.85. I’m currently up 21.61%.